Suriname Elections - Time for Patience
Government building will likely take some time. That is no cause for concern.
Suriname went to the polls on 25 May. The result was messy with no one party getting even close to a majority.
The opposition National Democratic Party (NDP – ex-President Bouterse’s party), under Jennifer Geerlings-Simons won 18 seats and the ruling Progressive Reform Party (VHP), under current President Santokhi ended up with 17 seats in the 51 seat National Assembly. The remaining 16 seats went to a variety of smaller parties.
This complicates both the election of the next President and who will form the next government.
On the former a President is elected once they get two-thirds of the votes in the National Assembly. On the later clearly a coalition will be required.
What does this all mean?
Whilst the overall seats haven’t changed much (the VHP won 20 in 2020 and the NDP won 16, with others winning 15), this result is clearly a bloody nose for Santokhi and his chances of getting back in government are likely slim. The VHP gained 11 seats in 2020 in a clear signal of a desire for change in the face of an economic crisis and following years of President Bouterse’s often controversial rule. That voters have seemingly turned on him in such a short period of time indicates the disappointment they feel.
The NDP has also, no doubt, benefitted from no longer being under the leadership of Bouterse. It is therefore clear that the NDP are the favourites to form a coalition government (and subsequently take back the Presidency).
The NDP has made no secret of the fact they will not join a coalition with the VHP (the reverse is also likely true) so the smaller parties will be key. But pulling together a coalition by either of the larger parties is going to be difficult as they will need to bring 8 or 9 out of the 16 seats they hold with them. However, as I say, the smart money is on the NDP.
Subsequent processes for Presidential selection and government formation will likely mean a new Government will be in place sometime around the end of July/start of August.
Whilst elections should always be seen as important these specific ones are particularly so in Suriname as the country moves to exploit significant offshore oil and gas finds. These have the potential to transform the economy and country (much as has been the case in neighbouring Guyana). First on the horizon is TotalEnergies’ Gran Morgu oil project, scheduled to begin production in 2028.
All parties are clear they want to ensure oil and gas production not only benefits the broader population but also maintains Suriname’s environmental credentials as the world’s most forested (by proportion of land covered) country. However, there are some differences in policy approach between the two main parties with many considering the NDP more ‘interventionist’. This will likely mean some potentially significant policy changes should/when the NDP take charge.
And whilst oil companies, by definition, will work with anyone they also crave stability and want to know who they are working with. So the sooner coalition negotiations are completed the better.
At the moment though it is time for patience. The opportunities are there and all parties want to make the most of them. So to use an oft-quoted old British World War 2 slogan: ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’. Things will get there. No major crises or shocks are to be expected. Let’s just allow the democratic process to run its course.